Unstable Index
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The Unstable Index

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0 · calm100 · fragile

One number for how fragile the crypto market is right now. Fear & Greed tells you how the crowd feels; the Unstable Index tells you how much room the market actually has before something breaks.

Last computed - · updated daily at 08:00 UTC

Details

methodology v2.1

How the score is calculated. Every input is pulled on-chain or from public sources, then timestamped and hashed daily, with no manual adjustments.

Eight sub-indices · score / weight higher = more fragile
30-day history -
  1. Collect. Chain state, pool balances, funding, reserves and 17 macro tickers. Public sources only, no paid oracles.
  2. Score. Each signal maps to one of eight weighted sub-indices.
  3. Amplify. A CISS-style amplifier lifts the score when sub-indices move together, the way the ECB does for TradFi.
  4. Publish. One hashed run per day at 08:00 UTC.

Backtesting

same weights, no hindsight

What the same methodology would have shown before three past events, using its original weights.

6 days early

Terra / Luna May 2022 91.2

UST peg deviation plus Luna supply inflation. Curve pool imbalance at 78% UST and $2.4B of Anchor outflows were the leading inputs.

4 days early

FTX November 2022 84.7

Abnormal FTT concentration, a collapsing collateral-to-liability ratio and unusual withdrawal patterns lifted the exchange sub-index before the freeze.

18 hours early

USDC depeg March 2023 72.3

Reserve attestation staleness against Circle's $3.3B at Silicon Valley Bank, plus Curve imbalance, flagged USDC before it traded at $0.877.